Ocean freight rates to Australia surging again, remaining the trade route outlier: International freight insights APAC 2024 week 37

Global rates are falling while Australia rates spike again. Ocean spot market freight rates Asia to Australia had a 7% increase in the past week (rates are up 25% in the past month). Contrast this to ocean freight rates from Asia to all global routes which decreased 3% in the past week (global rates are down 11% in the past month).

Spot ocean freight rates to Australia over a longer 3-month chart period, show rates have increased 20% Asia to all markets, whilst they have increased by a much larger 42% Asia to Australia.

The index (see the chart) now shows that rates to South East Asia have fallen below Australia rates as they historically have been. This along with the longer 3-month chart differences, suggest rates to Australia should steady / start to decline within the next few weeks.

Indeed, of the Index’s 12 major ocean freight trade routes, the Australia / New Zealand route is the ONLY route ex China with continuing sharply increased rates, whilst other routes are mostly showing sharp decreases. This spike for Australia route will likely end soon, as Australia being an outlier can’t remain for long. There is an increased probability of steep rate falls in the medium term as Australia belatedly follows with the global trend.

Global airfreight rates have been unusually steady this year. Although rates have increased 6% in the past few weeks to sit at the highest rate level seen in 2024. As it’s now peak season and there’s increased air cargo demand with capacity not keeping up (read below) there is reasonable risk of continued airfreight rate increases in the coming weeks.

Ocean carrier ‘blank sailings’ increasing

Fearing another container spot rate crash, ocean carriers have blanked (a term meaning cancelling scheduled sailings) a number of sailings from Asia, prior to the Chinese national holiday in early October.

Per The Loadstar, A ‘carrier contact’ said he expected to see “many more” void sailings this year in the key soft-demand weeks around the national holiday. “We are determined not to get sucked into another rates war this year, and as long as the Red Sea diversions continue we think we will be ok,” said the contact.

As an example, per Container News, Maersk has announced a couple of blank sailings in late September / early October, as the week-long China national holiday period approaches.

Ocean shipping schedule reliability declines 2 percentage points to 52%

This is according to Sea Intelligence. Pre COVID schedule reliability was around 75%; during the worst of the COVID era, schedule reliability was around 35%. Maersk is the most schedule reliable carrier, Wan Hai the least.

Global air cargo supply grew at its slowest rate in 2024

Per Air Cargo News, air cargo supply has increased 2% year on year, while global cargo year on year demand continued its double-digit growth, rising 11%.

US bill takes aim at Chinese e-commerce imports

Air Cargo News explains that a senate bill aims to place US e-commerce imports under greater scrutiny to tackle shipments containing illegal and counterfeit products. This comes in response to the quadrupling of the number of e-commerce shipments from the likes of Shein and Temu over recent years. The bill says the retailers are “abusing” the de minimis system that allows packages worth less than $800 to enter the country tariff free. The bill would bar certain categories of products from being imported through de minimis.

Access ZG (access-zg.com) is an Australian company that provides fourth party logistics (4PL) services to international logistics & trade participants, specialising in connecting with Asian markets. Access ZG’s 10 value- ads assist with alleviating issues & navigating this new paradigm of heightened freight & supply chain risks for the international logistics industry.

Please see website and / or read below the email signature for further information & reach out for assistance in this challenging environment.

Thanks for taking the time to read and hope you gained some valuable insights,

Jeffrey Levy CA 

Founder

ACCESS ZG 

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