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Dec 34 min read

Significant ocean freight rate relief to end the month: International freight insights APAC November 2024

Updated: Dec 4


There was significant ocean freight rate relief to end November. Access ZG’s indicators from Asia freight forwarders are that spot ocean freight rates offered by some carriers decreased significantly by approximately 20-25% from the previous fortnight.

 

The China Containerized Freight Index (which is the best index for spot ocean freight between Asia and Australia) showed spot ocean freight rates China to Australia increased 5% over the past November month (rates are up 72% year to date). Rates for China to all global routes increased 8% over November 2024 (up 57% year to date). Here’s a year-to-date chart comparing ex China to Australia & New Zealand ocean rates (green), with ex China to South East Asia and all global rates ex China.



The index lags the information Access ZG sees in both other metrics and on the ground with Asia freight forwarder and shipping line quoted rates. The recorded index rate to Australia may see significant ocean freight decreases in coming weeks.

 

The containerized futures market ex China is pricing in similar ocean freight rates to now as at end February 2025. And then declines between February and April 2025, followed by a stabilization for remainder 2025.


Air freight rates (full-market mix of spot rates and contract rates) for intra-Asia Pacific increased just 1% approximately for the month of November 2024. Ex Asia Pacific rates increased 4% approximately for the month of November 2024, while overall worldwide rates were up 5% over the month. (Per World ACD Air Cargo Market Trends report). Air freight faces a continued capacity challenge.

 

Overseas and international freight may be the most vulnerable, least controlled part of your company’s international supply chain. Access ZG provides Australia & Asia on-the-ground specialist staff, expertise & resources for international supply chain management and brokerage & negotiating with shipping lines and forwarders. Reply to arrange a no obligation discussion via your choice of phone call, Zoom online or face to face (for those based in Sydney).  

 

 

November 2024 high value article highlights:

 

Air cargo capacity squeeze could linger 'until the end of the decade'

 

Air cargo’s capacity shortage “will not be resolved any time soon”, and could linger “until the end of the decade” … , delegates at Aviation Connect in Istanbul heard this week. Martin Drew, chief strategy and transformation officer at Atlas Air, said: “Certainly from a capacity perspective, there is a severe shortage of widebody freight capacity.  “Without doubt, demand is outweighing supply, …. he explained.  And Mr Drew noted that increasing the amount of available capacity would be a key element of “revitalising the supply chain” – but, he added, there were limited options for doing so.  

 

 

Air cargo capacity set to come under pressure in 2025

 

Next year could see a lack of air cargo capacity as passenger aircraft additions ease, additional freighters are in short supply and e-commerce demand remains strong.

 


Weaker than expected peak sees lower increase in Hong Kong airfreight rates

 

Airfreight rates on major trades out of Hong Kong picked up in November for the peak season, although the rate of change lags behind historical levels.

 

Speaking on a recent Air Cargo News webinar, in partnership with Maersk, Marcus Ng, regional head of airfreight, Asia Pacific, Maersk, explained that shippers had brought forward shipments to avoid potential disruption, particularly because of concerns over drawn-out port strikes at US east and Gulf coast ports. He added that shippers had also prepared well to get fixed capacity in place to avoid any surprise surge and mitigate risk.

 


Amazon decides it's time 'to shout' about its air cargo offering

 

Amazon Air Cargo has decided it’s time to make its presence felt in the industry and looks to openly sell its airfreight capacity to third parties.

 


Shipping reacts to Trump election win

 

Summing up the prospects for shipping under a potential second Trump administration next January, analysts at broker Hartland Shipping wrote: “The most confident conclusion we can make is that the volatility and uncertainty in today’s shipping markets is only going to increase under Trump 2.0.”

 


Carriers disappointed as contract talks loom and rate hikes fail to stick

 

Planned mid-November rate increases from carriers have, apparently, failed to stick.

 

 

Red Sea Shipping Disruptions to Persist Amid Rising Tensions

 

Vessel incidents and shipping disruptions are expected to persist around the Arabian Peninsula into late November due to ongoing heightened tensions in the region. According to the Crisis24 intelligence network, Houthi attacks diminished in September and October, averaging three incidents each month, likely due to fewer targets as the majority of the shipping companies are now bypassing the Red Sea and are sending their ships round the Cape of Good Hope.

 

However, Clarksons’ recent base forecast anticipates disruptions remaining until 2026, aligning with renewed Houthi aggression against vessels after a period of relative quiet. Clarksons released a graph with data up to late October, indicating a continued decline in Suez Canal transshipments, further complicating the situation.

 

 

Global schedule reliability sees slight uptick in October

 

Danish shipping data analysis firm Sea-Intelligence assessed the schedule reliability of major ocean carriers.

In October, global schedule reliability rose slightly by 0.9% points month-over-month (M/M), reaching 51.5%. Throughout 2024, schedule reliability has generally remained in the 50%-55% range.



 

Over 76 of Maersk’s European customers face supply chain disruptions

 

Over 76% of Maersk’s European customers face supply chain disruptions… A Maersk survey found 76% of its European customers faced supply chain disruptions this year, with 58% reporting increased costs and 22% experiencing over 20 incidents.

 


Commercial Shipping: Crucial Εlement in Potential Conflict Between China and US

 

A recent Wall Street Journal article delves into the critical interplay between military needs and commercial shipping capabilities, emphasizing the strategic importance of global shipping operations amidst the intensifying rivalry between the United States and China.

WSJ points out the significant role commercial shipping could play in a potential conflict between these two global superpowers.

 



Access ZG (access-zg.com) provides services to international logistics & trade participants, specialising in connecting with Asian markets.  

 

Thanks for taking the time to read and hope you gained some valuable insights,


Jeffrey Levy CA 

Founder

ACCESS ZG 

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Phone: 0417 275 262           

           +86 18813902084

WhatsApp: +61 417 275 262

WeChat: Jiefu888Jeff

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